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Arbitrage opportunities?

Dealer1

Member
Joined
Jun 16, 2021
Threads
5
Messages
15
Reaction score
6
Location
Houston
Vehicle(s)
2020 Civic hatchback
Good afternoon all,

I think we all know how this pandemic has shaped the car industry and others. Things are up in the roof. However we Civic fans have dealt with the craziest markups along with trucks. I recently posted about how I purchased my 2022 sport civic sedan for $26,024 (after taxes/title). If you live in a major metropolitan city, chances are civic's or hybrids are perhaps are in extreme demand as compared to a state like Colorado where outdoor vehicles are. Point is, this is the time that the consumer can take advantage of arbitrage opportunities. For whatever reason, the dealer I purchased from had around 16~ new civics in stock. Most LX/Sport/EX few were touring/hatchbacks in any trim. Thus most likely giving me the price quote of $26,024 + end of month quota needed to be met. Other dealers however have 0-4 in stock, some LX.

What I am trying to get here is that it seems some buyers are not doing research realizing they could get a much better deal at dealers with extreme inventory (yes I am talking 6-10+ 2022 civics in stock any trim/body style). I am working with a salesperson to see what they can quote me for a civic touring since they seem to have quite the stock.

Here is my plan. After seeing some civic sport sedans are still selling for $30k~ around my area, I end up checking on CarMax for 2022. My exact car model/trim is asking $30,998 with $3k miles. So far I don't even have 100~ miles just yet. I am assuming I can get $29k~ if I am lucky for the car (just like how I predicted my Civic hatchback will continue to go up with supply chain constraints). So it makes sense, if you can secure a civic sport or higher trim for under $27k you can most likely turn it around for a profit, for now.

Look I get it, it takes a lot of work, negotiation, especially money, and time. But this may be the ONLY opportunity you will be able to drive a car, sell it for a profit, and buy a new one like me. I'll admit, I got lucky okay, bought it just before the price hike, but even if I did, I would've turned a profit. So if you made it this far into the post you seem intrigued. I'll update this post quoting what I get from CarMax later today and a dealership that has no civics in stock.

Additionally, let's not forget what's going in our supply chain world. Yes, I am aware that Civic's are ASSEMBLED in Greensburg, Indiana but do not produce raw materials or manufacture their own chips in the US. So let's assume the parts they need are outside of the US; chips, doors, windows, etc...
  • Chip shortage.
  • Ports were supposed to operate 24/7 by Biden but nothing was done and these ports cant even do that
  • Cars are shipped in containers, each one can hold about 4 cars, containers are extreme constraints, and capacity
  • We are near black Friday and I doubt this holiday season will go smoothly. There will be extreme stockouts due to FOMO and inflation
  • The trucking shortage(?). I hear different things but most drivers are waiting too long at the ports thus causing them to turn away. Most aren't paid until the container is actually on their chassis (waste on gas, time, maintenance etc.)
  • Not enough chassis to even take these containers to a distribution center (insane fees, turn around needs to be FAST to return chassis, prioritizing different containers rather than our beloved civics)
  • Most CEO's of Intel/Nividia/AMD are still reporting that the chip shortage is like none-other and will continue to be at extreme supply until next year or 2023
  • People will save to spend in Christmas rather this black friday to give gifts to family (logical thinking here)
I could go on and on but you're getting the idea right? Buy NOW, sell in December/January when consumer spending is at the all time high. Its not rocket science.

Look, I am just trying to provide info on car buying and what to possibly expect. I am no expert in this industry for very long but graduated with SCM degree and worked in logistics for a bit of 8 months (of 2020-2021). Again, its not rocket science but a little digging. Oh I only suggest doing this if you have another car on-hand. It only makes sense if you wont have a car for a week or so if you decide to flip your car.

Other than that, thanks for reading!
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