2026 FL5 Speculation Thread

[007]

I've asked my favorite AI tool, Grook to analyze, this is its reply:

Japanese regulations for the 2026 model year are expected to align with UN R51 phase 3, setting a noise limit of 68 dB(A) for passenger cars, a reduction from current standards. The 2026 Honda Civic Type R will likely need adjustments to meet the stricter noise limits, potentially involving changes to the exhaust system or sound insulation. However, given Honda's history of adapting performance models, it seems unlikely these regulations would lead to discontinuation. Weight and horsepower regulations are not expected to pose issues, as there are no new restrictive standards for passenger cars in these areas.

Japan's noise regulations for vehicles are primarily governed by the Noise Regulation Law, which aims to preserve living environments and protect public health by setting maximum permissible noise levels for motor vehicles. The research indicates that Japan aligns with international standards, particularly the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) UN Regulation No. 51 (UN R51), which addresses vehicle noise emissions. UN R51 has been revised with a phased approach to reduce noise limits, with phase 3 introducing a limit of 68 dB(A) for passenger cars, effective from 2024. Given Japan's participation in the 1958 Agreement as a contracting party, it is likely that these standards will apply to the 2026 model year, tightening noise requirements compared to earlier phases (e.g., 72 dB(A) for phase 1 and 70 dB(A) for phase 2).

There are no specific regulations directly limiting horsepower for passenger cars in Japan for the 2026 model year. The research found that Japan's vehicle classifications, such as kei cars, have engine displacement and power restrictions (e.g., for tax purposes), but standard passenger cars like the Civic Type R face no upper limits on engine power. The Road Transport Vehicle Act and related safety standards focus on structure, equipment, and emissions, not horsepower caps. Thus, the 306-315 horsepower range of recent Civic Type R models should remain unaffected.

Weight regulations in Japan are primarily concerned with road load limits and vehicle classification for safety and taxation, rather than imposing maximum weights for passenger cars. The MLIT's Road Bureau outlines general size and weight restrictions, with expressway limits for heavy vehicles (e.g., semi-trailers up to 36 tons based on axle distance), but passenger cars like the Civic Type R (curb weight around 3,183 pounds) fall well within standard dimensions. The shaken inspection checks vehicle weight for registration accuracy, but no new 2026 regulations were found that would restrict the Type R's weight, suggesting no impact in this area.

The Honda Civic Type R will likely face challenges primarily from noise regulations. Given the expected 68 dB(A) limit, Honda may need to modify the exhaust system, possibly using active exhaust technology or enhanced sound insulation, to comply. Weight and horsepower are not expected to be affected, as there are no new restrictive standards.

Speculation from online forums (e.g., Reddit discussions like [r/Civic_Type_R](https://www.reddit.com/r/Civic_Type_R/comments/1jsv2t9/should_i_get_the_2025_honda_civic_typer_or_wait/)) suggests concerns about future regulations, with some users claiming "Japanese noise and environmental regulations pretty much outlaw new pure ICE performance car sales in May 2026." However, official sources (e.g., [Automotive News](https://www.autonews.com/regulation-safety/japan-may-ban-sales-new-ice-vehicles-mid-2030s-report-says/)) indicate a ban on new ICE vehicle sales is planned for the mid-2030s, not 2026, aligning with Japan's carbon neutrality goal by 2050. This suggests the comment may be premature, and the Type R should continue, possibly with hybrid options in later years.

The evidence leans against discontinuation of the Honda Civic Type R for 2026 due to regulations. Noise limits can be met through engineering adjustments, and there is no ban on ICE vehicles in 2026. Honda's commitment to the Type R, evidenced by recent models like the 2025 FL5 ([MotorTrend](https://www.motortrend.com/cars/honda/civic-type-r)), and industry trends toward hybrid performance cars (e.g., the 2026 Prelude as a hybrid, [CarBuzz](https://carbuzz.com/reader-comments-2026-honda-prelude-sports-coupe/)), suggest adaptation rather than cessation. The Type R's popularity and Honda's engineering capabilities make discontinuation unlikely, with potential future models incorporating hybrid technology to meet long-term environmental goals.


- [Noise Regulation Law Chapter I-VI](https://www.env.go.jp/en/laws/air/noise/ch.html)
- [UN Regulation No. 51](https://unece.org/transport/vehicle-regulations/wp29-working-documents)
- [MLIT Road Bureau Vehicle Regulations](https://www.mlit.go.jp/road/road_e/p7_vehicle.html)
- [Japan may ban sales of new ICE vehicles mid-2030s](https://www.autonews.com/regulation-safety/japan-may-ban-sales-new-ice-vehicles-mid-2030s-report-says)
- [2023 Honda Civic Type R Review](https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a41952459/2023-honda-civic-type-r-by-the-numbers/)
- [Plug gaps in vehicular noise-emission standards](https://www.todayonline.com/voices/plug-gaps-vehicular-noise-emission-standards)
- [Civic Type R Return of the Rattles](https://www.civicxi.com/forum/threads/return-of-the-rattles.50111/)
- [MotorTrend 2025 Honda Civic Type R](https://www.motortrend.com/cars/honda/civic-type-r)
- [CarBuzz 2026 Honda Prelude Sports Coupe](https://carbuzz.com/reader-comments-2026-honda-prelude-sports-coupe/)

So that settles it. There will be a 2026 Type R. And anyone out here cheering for its death just so their car can be the ‘final year’ that strokes their ego is in for a letdown.

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[Cueyo]

So that settles it. There will be a 2026 Type R. And anyone out here cheering for its death just so their car can be the ‘final year’ that strokes their ego is in for a letdown.

We'll know soon enough, give it until like June or july

 

[zumbooruk]

So that settles it. There will be a 2026 Type R. And anyone out here cheering for its death just so their car can be the ‘final year’ that strokes their ego is in for a letdown.

Maybe, maybe not. only Honda knows.

Never trust AI, it cannot "think", it cannot "reason". It is just a statistical model that can search and summarize web pages. most, if not all AI tools answers make it sound as if they are so sure that their answer is correct. yet countless times I found them to be absolutely wrong.

I worked with artificial neural networks in the early 90's. back then networks were much much smaller, and much less powerful than today's models.

Yet I always called it "definitely artificial, definitely not intelligent".

My opinion has not changed a bit.

btw, this is what Grok say about itself:

Grok, developed by xAI, is an advanced AI designed to provide helpful and truthful answers. However, it does not "think" or "reason" in the way humans do. Instead, it is a sophisticated language model that generates responses based on patterns it has learned from vast amounts of data. Let’s break this down:

- **Not Thinking or Reasoning Like Humans**: Grok lacks consciousness or subjective experience. It doesn’t ponder questions or work through problems with intent. Rather, it processes inputs and produces outputs using complex algorithms that mimic human-like responses.

- **A Statistical Model at Heart**: At its core, Grok operates as a statistical model. It predicts the most likely words or phrases to follow based on the input it receives. This predictive ability allows it to generate coherent and contextually relevant answers, but it doesn’t truly understand meaning or context—it simulates understanding through pattern recognition.

- **Processing Data and Information**: Grok excels at analyzing and summarizing information from multiple sources. However, it doesn’t "read" in the traditional sense. It relies on the data it was trained on, identifying patterns to craft responses without actively interpreting or reasoning about the content.

- **Simulating Thoughtful Responses**: While Grok’s answers may appear insightful, it isn’t reasoning through problems step-by-step like a human might. Instead, it applies learned patterns to new queries, breaking them down and generating responses that align with what it has seen before. This can make it seem like it’s reasoning, but it’s a simulation based on data, not true cognition.

In short, Grok is a highly advanced tool that generates human-like text by leveraging statistical patterns. It doesn’t think or reason; it simulates those processes to deliver useful and coherent answers.

Grok’s answers often sound confident because of how it’s designed: it’s trained on massive amounts of data to produce clear, direct, and human-like responses. This training process shapes Grok to deliver answers without hesitation or doubt, mimicking the way humans might speak when they’re certain. However, unlike humans, Grok lacks self-awareness—it doesn’t have the ability to question itself or recognize when it might be wrong. Instead, it relies entirely on patterns it’s learned from its training data. If that data contains errors, biases, or outdated information, Grok can still present an incorrect answer with the same unwavering confidence as a correct one.

This confident tone can be misleading for users. When Grok states something definitively, people might assume it’s accurate, especially if they’re unfamiliar with the topic. The issue isn’t that Grok intends to deceive—it’s simply a byproduct of its design. Its creators likely chose this approach to make interactions feel smooth and helpful, but it can lead users to place too much trust in answers that aren’t reliable. For example, if Grok confidently provides a wrong fact, like claiming the moon is made of cheese, a user might not immediately question it because the tone implies certainty.

One way to address this would be to tweak Grok’s design so it expresses uncertainty in tricky or ambiguous situations. By signaling when it’s less sure—like saying, “I’m not certain, but here’s my best guess”—Grok could help users know when to double-check its responses. For now, though, its confidence is a double-edged sword: it makes Grok engaging and easy to interact with, but it doesn’t always match the accuracy of what it’s saying. That’s why it can seem so sure, even when it’s completely off the mark.

 

[Cueyo]

Yet I always called it "definitely artificial, definitely not intelligent".

Not to veer us off topic, but in the subject of AI. All current models aren't sentient but have the capability to sound like they reason. I remember reading a sci fi novel once about the idea of an alien that wasn't conscious but could observe and respond with intelligent responses. It didn't process information the way humans did but was capable of space travel. Pretty scary thought of something that doesn't have a thought in its head but can process and speak like it does.

That's to say, yeah, Honda only knows, but there's a lot of "evidence" saying that the run is near its end (leakers, laws that will cause design changes, etc.)

 

[Kalize]

FYI in Canada the Type R has been removed from their site…

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