2023 Civic Type R Waitlist / Deposit / Reservations List - Check in here!

[RoidRage]

Holy crap are you ever a ball of positivity! Did you wake up this morning and say hey! I’m going to take a shit on someones corn flakes today!

There is an expectation, and there is reality LOL. I'm sorry if my assessments are negative, but someone has to be the voice of reason here.

I do this shit as a profession, so this is why I have to be as objective as possible in forecasting. Its not rainbows and sunshine for 80% of the time when you have lofty expectations.

You could have the Russian mindset though, "we will take Kyiv in 2 weeks", and then get end up losing territory gained 6 months into a war ROFL. Sorry for the dark example, but it is the best I could think of.

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[Whitboy82]

There are too many people on here, that think everything is just gonna “work itself out”, and I think they are going to be sadly mistaken. And if you choose to look at the reality of the situation, they get offended. Lol

 

[onepointsix]

haha, I actually mathed this out.

Assumptions are as follows (this ONLY pertains to CANADA!!!!!):
1) 237 Canadian Honda dealerships currently
2) Assume 60% wont get FL5 allocations ( I think this is already an aggressive assumption, more than 40% will get at least 1 IMO).
3) Assume 550 3 year production life cycle (to be verified, based on rumors and leaks)
4) Flat/straight line annual allocation to dealerships

Max high/mid dealer allocation annual: 550 / (237 * (1 - 0.6)) / 3 = 2

Based on variables assumed MAX each dealer at the top or mid-level can get annually is 2-3.

Feel free to use a different set of variables. But 6 annual allocations is impossible based on the math IMO.

I would LOVEEEEEE to be wrong, but again, being objective here tell me where I am wrong based on the information available for analysis?

Ya, looks fine. But there that's also under the assumptions there's equal distribution among those dealerships and I don't believe that'll be the case. Personally, I'm not expecting a car till March 2023 and prefer not driving it though shitty canadian winter anyway, but speculating is always "fun".

 

[RoidRage]

Ya, looks fine. But there that's also under the assumptions there's equal distribution among those dealerships and I don't believe that'll be the case. Personally, I'm not expecting a car till March 2023 and prefer not driving it though shitty canadian winter anyway, but speculating is always "fun".

The largest dealerships (top 5) in Canada quoted 2-3 annually, I don't think there is situation where the largest dealerships will get LESS than others OR even close to 50% less?

ALL my analysis IMO is as accurate as possible given the information available. Also, the 60% assumption will negate ANY variances in distribution. Lord help us if 60% of dealerships don't get a FL5. All the small town folks here would essentially be fucked.

 

[onepointsix]

The largest dealerships (top 5) in Canada quoted 2-3 annually, I don't think there is situation where the largest dealerships will get LESS than others OR even close to 50% less?

ALL my analysis IMO is as accurate as possible given the information available. Also, the 60% assumption will negate ANY variances in distribution. Lord help us if 60% of dealerships don't get a FL5. All the small town folks here would essentially be fucked.

Yup, sounds bad but I think that's exactly what's going to happen. There's still too much unknown and no concrete info.

 

[RoidRage]

Yup, sounds bad but I think that's exactly what's going to happen. There's still too much unknown and no concrete info.

Agreed, at this point we just need a new set of update assumptions to make any of this make sense.

Hopefully the embargo lift will allow for all of us to rerun the numbers and realign expectations.

 

[Alpha97]

A dealer just offered their first slot for $10K over (color, ETA unknown and $1k deposit)
Would you guys do it?

 

[Tickle]

I myself would not... Could not.

That doesn't mean it isn't for you though

 

[TomK]

I thought today was “supposed” to be a big day?

 

[UFO CTR]

A dealer just offered their first slot for $10K over (color, ETA unknown and $1k deposit)
Would you guys do it?

hell yea!
I did it on 7/26

EDIT: I know I'd be getting a sort of Sh*t for this...

 

[ssheff55]

Came here with multiple PAGES of new posts hoping for an update on this BIG day… 🫠

 

[onepointsix]

I assume it was supposed to be the day dealerships possibly get their allocations? I thought I read some where in the thread that it was only an assumption the Type R would be included.

 

[Alpha97]

I myself would not... Could not.

That doesn't mean it isn't for you though

It hurt my heart to do so but I declined.

 

[RoidRage]

Big day is 14th/15th Detroit Auto Show news release gents.

My expectation is pricing and more volume numbers will be released there. If not lord help US ALL.

 

[ssheff55]

It hurt my heart to do so but I declined.

What’s your max? VERY few dealers going to be below $5k. Used market will be worse than markups for a while I’m sure.

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