2023 Civic Type R Waitlist / Deposit / Reservations List - Check in here!

[TypeRD]

FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers, so it’s not an apples to apples comparison, particularly when comparing the world we live in now vs the pre-pandemic world. It’s just not. However, it’s not an extreme case, like the Porsche GT3 example either. But I get what you’re saying ; Prices “should” (theoretically) level out as more cars become available. That makes sense. Again, in the world we live in today (which I can see easily continuing into 2025, unfortunately), I don’t think there will be a shortage of buyers who will pay extra for a brand new FL5 (even when given the option to pay MSRP or a little less for a used example). $10k extra? No. Up to ~$5k, sure. Has anyone looked at what low milage (less than 20k miles) FK8’s are going for? It’s a rhetorical question. They’re listing, and certainly some are selling, for more than MSRP even still! I think this points to the fact that demand is still out pacing supply for new and lightly used CTR’s. I don’t see this changing. Why? Because, unless a miracle happens, FL5 production numbers will not reach the same production numbers as the FK8. And even if they did, again, look at the prices that lightly used FK8’s are selling for. More cars will be available over time, sure. But in the grand scheme there won’t be a lot out there to choose from. Note the GRC example isn’t really relevant either. Toyota has a dedicated GR plant that has the ability to ramp up production amongst various GR vehicles as needed. They saw demand going up for the GRC, they were able to shift to producing more of them without a whole lot of complexity…which is why one might see 2-3 GRC’s at a Toyota dealer. Honda, on the other hand, does not currently have the luxury of production flexibility for the FL5. In fact, they shut down their biggest plant in Japan late last year to ready it for electric vehicle production. They can’t shift things around to make more FL5’s than they’ve already committed to. So, what I’m getting at is that the whole picture needs to be considered, not just simple supply and demand, but also total projected supply.

Sponsored

 

[Tickle]

Explanations are too much? Sure... TL : DR - FK8 price history for the first 3 years.

Heh... Your explanation is too much. To be honest you are fighting an uphill battle.

Supply shortages and logistic issues impacted the FK8s production. New impacts the preowned, not the other way around.

You can't predict the future.

 

[TimeRacer]

FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers, so it’s not an apples to apples comparison, particularly when comparing the world we live in now vs the pre-pandemic world. It’s just not. However, it’s not an extreme case, like the Porsche GT3 example either. But I get what you’re saying ; Prices “should” (theoretically) level out as more cars become available. That makes sense. Again, in the world we live in today (which I can see easily continuing into 2025, unfortunately), I don’t think there will be a shortage of buyers who will pay extra for a brand new FL5 (even when given the option to pay MSRP or a little less for a used example). $10k extra? No. Up to ~$5k, sure. Has anyone looked at what low milage (less than 20k miles) FK8’s are going for? It’s a rhetorical question. They’re listing, and certainly some are selling, for more than MSRP even still! I think this points to the fact that demand is still out pacing supply for new and lightly used CTR’s. I don’t see this changing. Why? Because, unless a miracle happens, FL5 production numbers will not reach the same production numbers as the FK8. And even if they did, again, look at the prices that lightly used FK8’s are selling for. More cars will be available over time, sure. But in the grand scheme there won’t be a lot out there to choose from. Note the GRC example isn’t really relevant either. Toyota has a dedicated GR plant that has the ability to ramp up production amongst various GR vehicles as needed. They saw demand going up for the GRC, they were able to shift to producing more of them without a whole lot of complexity…which is why one might see 2-3 GRC’s at a Toyota dealer. Honda, on the other hand, does not currently have the luxury of production flexibility for the FL5. In fact, they shut down their biggest plant in Japan late last year to ready it for electric vehicle production. They can’t shift things around to make more FL5’s than they’ve already committed to. So, what I’m getting at is that the whole picture needs to be considered, not just simple supply and demand, but also total projected supply.

Let's break this down a bit.

1) "FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers"
Who knows really. We're literally within the first 4-5 months of sale and we're already writing the future production in stone.

2) "in the world we live in today (which I can see easily continuing into 2025, unfortunately), I don’t think there will be a shortage of buyers who will pay extra for a brand new FL5"
It's all speculation and again we've got similar cars within the market (Elantra N, Golf R, GR Corolla, Integra Type-S, etc) and cars just up market (GR Supra, Z, m240i/M2, RS3, etc) available so it's not like there aren't financial alternatives that fulfill similar roles. We also get to see the price histories of all of those cars, all of them have ADM's coming DOWN. Essentially you're labeling the CTR as a collector's car.

3) "Note the GRC example isn’t really relevant either. Toyota has a dedicated GR plant that has the ability to ramp up production amongst various GR vehicles as needed."
Motomachi is not a dedicated plant for GR Vehicles, nor is it dedicated to the GR Corolla. GR has a small sub section within it but the point of the GR Corolla comparison is with a few dealers getting their 3rd vehicle, pricing is already dropped below $5k ADM's meaning supply is quickly catching up to demand reflecting the overall demand for this market segment, which is quite niche. Not about trying to compare Honda vs Toyota manufacturing capability, especially as currently Honda is focusing upon home market supply and supply chain is only going to improve from this point forward.

Basically the conclusion of both yourself and Tickle is this is a collector's car and demand will outpace supply throughout its life cycle. As much as I'm being chastised for 'predicting the future' which is the same used market model for 99% of the vehicles out there including the FK8, that's exactly what you both are doing. This car will somehow outpace the FK8 price history for whatever reasons you want to give... It's just interesting that both your predictions are for the 1% chance the car is a true collector's car even though today in a market full of cash the car isn't easily selling out at that $10k markup and is barely getting $5k over MSRP in the flipping market. This, per your predictions, will be maintained or increase even once supply hits 5000+ units in the wild, with interest rates going up and a market with less overall money with a likely recession. It's one of those... sure, it can happen, but is it likely? Probably not.

If we were to choose a vehicle pricing model then - what is the FL5 in your minds? FK8 had 20 years of Type-R history and pent up demand to capitalize on and you're saying the FL5 is going to do even better than that overall.

 

[1971Camaro]

FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers, so it’s not an apples to apples comparison, particularly when comparing the world we live in now vs the pre-pandemic world. It’s just not. However, it’s not an extreme case, like the Porsche GT3 example either. But I get what you’re saying ; Prices “should” (theoretically) level out as more cars become available. That makes sense. Again, in the world we live in today (which I can see easily continuing into 2025, unfortunately), I don’t think there will be a shortage of buyers who will pay extra for a brand new FL5 (even when given the option to pay MSRP or a little less for a used example). $10k extra? No. Up to ~$5k, sure. Has anyone looked at what low milage (less than 20k miles) FK8’s are going for? It’s a rhetorical question. They’re listing, and certainly some are selling, for more than MSRP even still! I think this points to the fact that demand is still out pacing supply for new and lightly used CTR’s. I don’t see this changing. Why? Because, unless a miracle happens, FL5 production numbers will not reach the same production numbers as the FK8. And even if they did, again, look at the prices that lightly used FK8’s are selling for. More cars will be available over time, sure. But in the grand scheme there won’t be a lot out there to choose from. Note the GRC example isn’t really relevant either. Toyota has a dedicated GR plant that has the ability to ramp up production amongst various GR vehicles as needed. They saw demand going up for the GRC, they were able to shift to producing more of them without a whole lot of complexity…which is why one might see 2-3 GRC’s at a Toyota dealer. Honda, on the other hand, does not currently have the luxury of production flexibility for the FL5. In fact, they shut down their biggest plant in Japan late last year to ready it for electric vehicle production. They can’t shift things around to make more FL5’s than they’ve already committed to. So, what I’m getting at is that the whole picture needs to be considered, not just simple supply and demand, but also total projected supply.

all valid... but you are still forgetting that the CTR is one of the coolest cars being promoted in 2023, and not all buyers are people who necessarily WANT a hot hatch -- they just want the coolest car. Those kind of buyers are the ones who can usually afford the higher mark-ups and will be gone by 2024-5 when the next coolest cars are introduced. My career is in consumer behavior and pop-culture... and this is a standard life-cycle in industries and communities.

The problem predicting specifics is that there are so many variables (such as pandemics, wars, media influencers, the global economy, etc.) that can change how it plays out. but, given even a handful of new, must-have vehicles in the next couple of years, the competition for this car would *normally* diminish. In fact, history has shown that the first of a kind (such as the USA GR/Yaris) typically would hold higher value and desire over a more recent rendering of a classic (CTR). My toyota dealer said that the people with money are holding out for the circuit models of the GR. Altho, when the newer circuit versions come out, new discussions and comparisons with the CTR will happen -- which might actually reduce the image of the CTR (depending on GR reviews) or bring the CTR back to the forefront. The media is a big key to this.

Those are facts. I make no absolute predictions, but as long as the media influencers are gushing over this car, demand will stay high. Just watch for their attention to be distracted by a new toy, and that should impact CTR availability.

 

[Tickle]

Basically the conclusion of both yourself and Tickle is this is a collector's car and demand will outpace supply throughout its life cycle. As much as I'm being chastised for 'predicting the future' which is the same used market model for 99% of the vehicles out there and the FK8, that's exactly what you both are doing. This car will somehow outpace the FK8 price history for whatever reasons you want to give... It's just interesting that both your predictions are for the 1% chance the car is a true collector's car even though today in a market full of cash the car isn't easily selling out at that $10k markup and is barely getting $5k over MSRP in the flipping market. This, per your predictions, will be maintained even once supply hits 5000+ units in the wild, with interest rates going up and a market with less overall money with a likely recession. It's one of those... sure, it can happen, but is it likely? Probably not.

Hahaha... You're wild.

I only asked you one question... I just wanted to know how the preowned market impacted the new car market directly.

You then went on this... path of not only not backing what you say but proving the absolute opposite.

Honestly, I wish I never asked... lol

 

[TimeRacer]

Hahaha... You're wild.

I only asked you one question... I just wanted to know how the preowned market impacted the new car market directly.

You then went on this... path of not only not backing what you say but proving the absolute opposite.

Honestly, I wish I never asked... lol

Truthfully I hope this is feigned ignorance. As you don't read an explanation for too many words and ignore the FK8 first 3 years example. Having pre-owned cars available means new cars carry less of a premium - it isn't difficult. FK8 new pricing only dropped for the first 3 years. Supply and demand is also why new and used FK8 prices skyrocketed in late 2020 and 2021 when Honda stated no immediate successor was coming [future supply in jeopardy]. So you have theory and practical application and example for a car history we all know quite well. I'm sorry this is so "wild" for you.

 

[TypeRD]

We’re only talking supply and demand here and total supply. No one is talking about collectibility, though scarcity tends to go hand in hand. Too much conjecture and tangents happening.

FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers is very likely true. Here’s why : You understand the way production works, right? In an overly simplified manner (not being snarky) : X production facility can churn out only X number of vehicles over X number of months. That’s the very top level of how manufacturing facilities operate and this is how they can promise their dealers X number of vehicles in X amount of time. OK. So…while it is technically possible they could somehow produce more CTR’s than they’ve committed to, it isn’t quick nor easy when other production cells (within the plant) are committed to building other important vehicles. Know what I mean? The CTR is maybe the most important car to us, but from a production and $ perspective, it’s just one of several important vehicles that they need to produce and ship to dealers. Again, it is possible, but very highly improbable, that Honda would shift production away from other vehicles to make more CTR’s. That they shut down their biggest vehicle production plant in Japan last December only further solidifies this inflexibility and solidifies the improbability of Honda exceeding CTR commitments by any considerable amount.

I agree, comparing production between Toyota and Honda is moot, except that Toyota has the ability to churn out more cars. More cars drives prices down. I agree with that. Where I think you’re getting things twisted is that (not trying to put words in anyone’s mouth) is that you believe FL5 production will reach FK8 production. I don’t know the numbers, but I imagine FK8 productIon, month over month, is probably somewhere in the ballpark of GRC numbers month over month. That’s the thing that I, and nobody here, believes will ever be the case with the FL5. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

We can all agree there’s a lot of speculation here. At the end of the day, more cars will become available. We know that. Whether enough will be available (new and lightly used) to drive prices down to MSRP, we’ll have to wait and see. In the meantime, folks who REALLY want one should be able to get one at a reasonable ADM of ~$5k or less if they simply wait for the next waves of cars to come. Agree, that is a reasonable theory. Go look at lightly used FK8 prices online today and let us know your thoughts on that. It doesn’t entirely jive with classic economic theories of supply vs demand…which points again to the crazy world we live in now vs pre-pandemic.

 

[Tickle]

Truthfully I hope this is feigned ignorance. As you don't read an explanation for too many words and ignore the FK8 first 3 years example. Having pre-owned cars available means new cars carry less of a premium - it isn't difficult. FK8 new pricing only dropped for the first 2.5 years. It's also why new and used FK8 prices skyrocketed in late 2020 and 2021 when Honda stated no immediate successor was coming. So you have theory and practical application and example for a car history we all know quite well. I'm sorry if that's not enough for you.

I can't believe you think Honda mentioning whatever you say they said had more of an impact on the value of the FK8 than the inability to produce it fast enough...



I don't care if it was a Chevy Equinox. When new vehicles couldn't be produced fast enough. Preowned ones went up in value. INCLUDING the FK8. So if you want to talk about three years just know it lines right up with 2020.

Used cars don't dictate new car values. Come on... I'm done.

 

[TimeRacer]

I can't believe you think Honda mentioning whatever you say they said had more of an impact on the value of the FK8 than the inability to produce it fast enough...



I don't care if it was a Chevy Equinox. When new vehicles couldn't be produced fast enough. Preowned ones went up in value. INCLUDING the FK8. So if you want to talk about three years just know it lines right up with 2020.

Used cars don't dictate new car values. Come on... I'm done.

I have to laugh as even per your own example, a short supply used market (for ALL vehicles in 2022) for your Chevy Equinox example, allows new pricing to be marked up even higher. Example of let's say there's 50 Equinox's in every state under 2 years old used and there's only 2 new ones in every state. You think people are paying 30% over MSRP for the new ones regularly? Generally not. It's funny - you're trying to argue the chicken and the egg paradox, which one causes what... where I'm simply stating they're there and forever tied to one another. To go this far into the weeds about it... shows exactly why you shouldn't bother helping people that are so lost in their own head over their own arguments.

Used being readily available means less premium on new that's entirely what I've been saying. But you do your own thing.

 

[addakatlahemanth]

congrats! and i did say that it could be possible to get low/no ADM if you have an established relationship with a dealer or are lucky. but a lot of the people posting on here have said (see their stories) that their existing relationship didn't work out over the allure of extra money to be made (their agreements were cancelled)... while others (like myself) did not have an existing relationship with a honda dealer. so, while i am thrilled for you that you got such a great deal... what you didn't explain was what you did or what others might do to replicate that. bragging is fine... but then help others to get their hands on a car like this.

Hi sure. So I’m based off Pittsburgh . I never targeted big town dealerships as I knew markups would be crazy. Called every small town dealerships in 200 miles, radius, put my name on list in the month of November 2022. One of them called on Jan 8th they had for 3k over. And other was at MSRP but it was black I passed on it. Put a deposit on 3k over car. After that atleast 4 other dealerships called for 5-7 k over all of them 3rd wave cars as I was first in the list. I don’t have a trade just fyi. I didn’t have any relationships with any dealerships.
What ever deals I passed I helped folks I know to get the type R

One Of the forum member local to my area wanted type R I found a instock unit in upstate NY they wanted 10k finally we negotiated to 7k with accessories worth 500$ included.

My advice find dealers in small towns.

 

[TimeRacer]

We’re only talking supply and demand here and total supply. No one is talking about collectibility, though scarcity tends to go hand in hand. Too much conjecture and tangents happening.

So collectability is PART of the supply/demand equation and likely the only thing that really sustains a car to increase in price over MSRP over time. 99% of cars are depreciating assets.

FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers is very likely true. Here’s why : You understand the way production works, right? In an overly simplified manner (not being snarky) : X production facility can churn out only X number of vehicles over X number of months.

Snipping a ton of this since you're running under the following assumptions. 1) Production is factory and not supply limited 2) It's not global production but every single region only gets a specific number of cars and no reallocation is possible 3) Supply chain won't improve or efficiencies are never found during production. 4) Bunch of other stuff that actually affects production but you're writing in stone what they can produce now and send to the US today is the HIGHEST it will be through the likely 4 year life cycle. 5) The CTR is the most important vehicle for the US market (it's not by a long shot)

If that's what you want to believe and operate on... cool. It's entirely speculative but w/e I'm not here to change your mind and this isn't the thread to try.

Where I think you’re getting things twisted is that (not trying to put words in anyone’s mouth) is that you believe FL5 production will reach FK8 production. I don’t know the numbers, but I imagine FK8 productIon, month over month, is probably somewhere in the ballpark of GRC numbers month over month. That’s the thing that I, and nobody here, believes will ever be the case with the FL5. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

Again you're hung up on FK8 production numbers. Look at the market for the FL5 TODAY. $5k-$10k ADM and we're not even through pent up demand with less than 400 copies on the road today. Your assertion is even once we hit 5000+ copies the demand will still sustain the $10k ADM. I'm simply stating it's unlikely using 99% (FK8 included) of the cars EVER produced as an example. What you're claiming isn't the norm for the car market nor is it the norm for a market heading into a recession. Again I'm not trying to change your mind about it - just understand what you're asserting.

Go look at lightly used FK8 prices online today and let us know your thoughts on that. It doesn’t entirely jive with classic economic theories…which points again to the crazy world we live in now vs pre-pandemic.

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Honda-Civic-Type-R-d2568

FK8 Civic Type R pricing today vs 6 months ago the prices have only went down. The entire used market has went down from the peak used market of 2022. One can simply google "used cars selling above MSRP" and find a littany of examples, simply because of the market environment, unless you want to argue on behalf of all of those vehicles as well for being above MSRP used (rhetorical - don't argue it but just showing the CTR is simply caught up in the same market). On Autotrader there's 224 FK8's for sale which is way up from 6 months ago. Even the Limited editions are $10k over MSRP for sub 10k miles and haven't sold for months. Prices are still high, but the used market is still high on a whole confirmed by Cox, BlackBook, CarEdge, CarGurus or whatever you want to use. EVERY market measurement metric (if you care about that kind of thing) points toward the slowing of car sales but again that interferes with your view which is fine as again this isn't the place to change it.

The ridiculousness of this whole thing is my initial point still holds true. If you don't want to pay transport fees, storage fees, current first adopter premium... don't buy it or shop for it now. It's still more likely, even with your view, to be able to get the car easier and cheaper in 6+ months than it is right now. I really have no idea why this is such a crazy idea and if you want to debate the point make another thread and tag me in it as this already has gone on way too long here as this is beyond silly imo as you're trying to argue the 1% probability the car will remain at the launch markup as something written in stone and nothing I say or data I bring in will change that as I'm seeing people are here more to argue than to have a genuine conversation of probable availability over time.

 

[AspecR]

For me I'd rather get the Integra Type S.

I agree, unless you plan to tuck one away for 30 years as an investment, having 2 would be kinda pointless. Get the ITS as the 2nd option

 

[AspecR]

Y’all postin some long ass responses lol, definitely ain’t readin all of that

 

[POPNTEC]

haha! yes, this was the focus of one of my posts as well. while i'm definitely not encouraging harrassing any dealer, i visited my local dealerships in person multiple times. they called me when the cars came in... they called me when they dropped the prices. they knew i wanted one, and altho i wasn't even on their radar when i first visited, they got to know me and they knew i was serious enough to make the trip over there each time.

again, i really like my sales rep (who stuck to his commitment), but as i said, they already have a deposit on their next car without any VIN or ETA even.

those of you who have had the dealers crap out on you... did you have a written agreement that the car was yours, or just a deposit to show you were serious?

since deposits are a common thing and are very often negated/returned, is there a more reliable method/form of paperwork that would lock in a car/place in line without a vin number?

I just say hound the shit out of them into submission!

 

[CTRifecta]

Sponsored